What is a good win rate in trading?
Updated June 2026 · 7 min read
"What is your win rate?" — the most asked question in trading communities. And one of the most misleading. Win rate on its own tells you nothing about whether a trader is profitable. Yet traders keep chasing it as if a higher win rate automatically means they are better.
This article explains what a good win rate actually is, why it depends on your risk-reward, and how to use the two together to evaluate whether your strategy works.
Win rate without RR is useless
A win rate of 80% with an average loss of $500 and an average win of $50 is losing money. A win rate of 35% with an average loss of $100 and an average win of $300 is profitable. Win rate means nothing without risk-reward.
The relationship between win rate and risk-reward
For every risk-reward ratio there is a minimum win rate needed to break even. If you know that, you also know how much margin you have:
| Risk-Reward | Break-even win rate | Profitable at |
|---|---|---|
| 1:1 | 50% | >55% win rate |
| 1:1.5 | 40% | >45% win rate |
| 1:2 | 33% | >38% win rate |
| 1:3 | 25% | >30% win rate |
| 1:4 | 20% | >25% win rate |
If you have an RR of 1:2 and a win rate of 40%, you have a comfortable margin above break-even. That is a strong position — regardless of how low 40% might seem.
What is a "normal" win rate per strategy type?
ICT / SMC traders (FVG, OB, liquidity)
Typical win rate: 40–55%. Risk-reward: 1:2 to 1:4. The setups are selective and entries are precise — leading to an average win rate but excellent RR. Profitable with consistent execution.
Scalpers and momentum traders
Typical win rate: 55–70%. Risk-reward: 1:1 to 1:1.5. A high win rate is a necessity here — the RR is too low to compensate for a low win rate. More trades, tighter risk management.
Swing traders
Typical win rate: 35–50%. Risk-reward: 1:3 to 1:6. A low win rate is acceptable as long as the winners are large enough. Patience is the primary requirement.
How do you calculate your win rate correctly?
Win rate = number of winning trades / total number of trades × 100.
But watch out for distortion: count all trades — including impulsive ones outside your plan. If you only count your "good" trades, you are giving yourself a false picture of your actual performance. Analyze separately: trades that met your criteria vs. trades that did not. The second group almost always destroys your average.
Why a rising win rate can sometimes be a bad sign
If your win rate suddenly rises but your average win per trade falls, it may mean you are exiting too early. You are "securing" profits before the target is reached, which shrinks your RR. In the short term this feels good — more winners. In the long run it is damaging to your expectancy.
Traders who exit too early often have a win rate of 60–70%, but their average RR has dropped to 1:0.8. They are losing money without knowing it — because they are looking at the wrong statistic.
The right question: what is your break-even win rate?
Instead of chasing a specific win rate percentage, ask yourself: what is my break-even win rate given my average RR? Everything above that number is profitable. How much margin do you have? And is that margin large enough to absorb statistically normal losing streaks?
That is the question that matters.
See your real win rate and RR
Logify automatically calculates your win rate, average risk-reward, and break-even win rate. See at a glance whether you are above or below break-even — and how large your margin is.
Try Logify free →Conclusion
There is no universally "good" win rate. 35% can be excellent with 1:4 RR. 70% can be unprofitable with 1:0.5 RR. What matters is the combination — and the only metric that correctly summarizes that is expectancy. Focus on expectancy, not win rate.
Frequently asked questions
How many trades do I need for a reliable win rate?
A minimum of 50–100 trades for an indication, 200+ for statistical reliability. Calculations based on 20 trades are nearly worthless due to normal statistical variance.
Can my win rate vary by day of the week?
Absolutely. Many traders perform better on certain days (e.g. Tuesday–Thursday) and worse on Monday or Friday. This is normal and valuable to know — you can then only trade on your best days.
Should I adjust my strategy if my win rate drops?
Only if the decline is sustained over 100+ trades AND cannot be explained by normal statistical variance. Short-term drops are always normal — patience is required for reliable data.